What will be the impact of Federal Election Results on Oct 21st on Canada’s immigration system?
People wonder as to what the impact of general elections on the immigration system of Canada will be. Nothing can be foreseen, but past practices and policies of both, the Conservatives and the Liberals can be an indicator of the things to come. Immigration policy has not changed much since 1980s and the stability is likely to be maintained even after October 21st irrespective of who wins. Some of the highlights of the previous and current immigration policy in nutshell are:
- Immigrant intake shall remain around 300,000 per year irrespective of the election result as both parties agree that high levels of immigration are needed to alleviate the economic and fiscal strain caused by Canada’s ageing population and low birth rate.
- Immigration levels have steadily increased from 225,000 to 260,000 between 1996 to 2018.
- Canada’s retirement rate is accelerating due to the over 9 million baby boomers set to reach the age of retirement within the next decade. This means the need to sustain high levels of immigration is even more important to Canada’s economy than it was in the past.
- Newcomer Composition: A notable area of divergence between the two parties pertains to the composition of Canada’s newcomers.
- Under Conservatives, about 63 per cent of Canada’s immigrants arrived under the economic class, 27 per cent under the family class, and 10 per cent as refugees.
- Under Liberals, a greater emphasis was placed on the refugee class by increasing its share to about 15 per cent while reducing the share of the economic class to about 58 per cent (while keeping the family class share unchanged).
- The Conservatives would probably increase the economic class share to above 60 per cent while reducing the refugee class share.
- Settlement Funding
- Both parties are poised to maintain high levels of immigration moving forward which suggests that settlement funding of around 1.5 Billion will be largely unaffected.
- The Conservatives are campaigning to balance the federal budget within five years of attaining power, which may result in concerns that settlement supports will be cut. However, it is worth observing that the Conservatives increased settlement funding even as they balanced the budget leading up to the 2015 election.
The Liberals and Conservatives don't differ on substantive immigration matters such as citizenship policy and how to handle asylum claims. This leads one to believe that Canada’s immigration system will continue the pattern of recent decades that has seen the country increase newcomer levels and its investment in global talent.